Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Penguins @ Rockets YSU @ TOL

YOUNGSTOWN STATE

PENGUINSYSU

2-3  |  Road

75
FINAL
Wed, Nov 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Savage Arena
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

3-2  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
PENGUINS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Toledo)
PenguinsYSU (-3.5) 0 RocketsTOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

4.5%

Rockets Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOL -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

YSU By 1-7 points

3.3%

YSU By 8-14 points

0.6%

TOL By 1-7 points

12.2%

TOL By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
60
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
77
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
70
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
78
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 YSU @ TOL 75 - 92
Dec 14, 2024 TOL @ YSU 87 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +19.4% more
Toledo: 16.1 vs Youngstown State: 13.5
Rebounding (L5) +14.8% more
Toledo: 33.4 vs Youngstown State: 29.1
Turnovers (L5) +13.4% more
Toledo: 12.9 vs Youngstown State: 11.4
Steals (L5) +12.1% more
Toledo: 7.6 vs Youngstown State: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
YSU Score 60.0 75
TOL Score 77.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 36.4 40.0 / 38.0
Assists 16.1 / 13.5 18.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.2 / 4.0 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.5 / 45.2 53.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 69.6 85.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 29.1 32.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.8 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 11.4 12.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YSU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -1.3
TOL Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YSU
10-18-1 (35.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -1.3
TOL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +0.2
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
YSU
TOL
YSU
ML
48% 16-17
57% 17-13
61% 20-13
67% 20-10
ATS
48% 16-17
47% 14-16
61% 20-13
67% 20-10
TTL
64% 21-12
60% 18-12
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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