VMI
KEYDETSVMI
3-3 | Road
54
RICHMOND
SPIDERSRICH
4-0 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
KEYDETS
0%
SPIDERS
100%
KEYDETS
--
SPIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
VMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (VMI)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VMI -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VMI)
VMI By 1-7 points
26.2%
VMI By 8-14 points
25.3%
RICH By 1-7 points
15.3%
RICH By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
VMI
64
VMI
Richmond
57
RICHMOND
Simulated Score
VMI
61
VMI
Richmond
78
RICHMOND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Keydets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spiders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Keydets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Spiders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 19, 2025
VMI @ RICH
54 - 87
Dec 21, 2024
VMI @ RICH
71 - 78
Nov 6, 2023
VMI @ RICH
75 - 93
Nov 7, 2022
VMI @ RICH
48 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+68.3% more
VMI: 4.4
vs
Richmond: 1.4
Steals (L5)
+31.0% more
VMI: 9.5
vs
Richmond: 6.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.1%
VMI: 36.0%
vs
Richmond: 28.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.6%
Richmond: 79.4%
vs
VMI: 77.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VMI Score
64.0
54
RICH Score
57.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.9 / 36.0
50.0 / 26.0
Assists
13.9 / 14.9
21.0 / 6.0
Blocks
1.4 / 4.4
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.1 / 42.7
56.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
79.4 / 77.7
64.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
40.8 / 38.8
36.0 / 29.0
Steals
6.6 / 9.5
12.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 11.9
10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VMI
6-26-0
(18.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
RICH
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VMI
9-20-0
(31.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
RICH
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.1
RICH
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICH
VMI
RICH
VMI
ML
53%
17-15
53%
17-15
56%
18-14
84%
27-5
ATS
44%
14-18
50%
16-16
56%
18-14
84%
27-5
TTL
56%
18-14
62%
20-12
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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