EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
9-8-4 | Road
4
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
9-8-2 | Home
7
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Walman
#96 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Walman | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 4.00 | 0.867 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
4.00
--
Save %
0.867
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
100%
CAPITALS
0%
OILERS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
EDM By 1 goal
0.9%
EDM By 2-3 goals
0.3%
WSH By 1 goal
6.6%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Edmonton
1
EDMONTON
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Edmonton
3
EDMONTON
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
WSH @ EDM
5 - 6
Nov 19, 2025
EDM @ WSH
4 - 7
Feb 23, 2025
EDM @ WSH
3 - 7
Jan 21, 2025
WSH @ EDM
3 - 2
Mar 13, 2024
WSH @ EDM
2 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+28.7% more
Washington: 5.6
vs
Edmonton: 4.4
Blocked Shots (L5)
+17.2% more
Washington: 17.2
vs
Edmonton: 14.6
Power Play % (L5)
+24.4%
Edmonton: 27.7%
vs
Washington: 3.3%
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.8%
Edmonton: 54.5%
vs
Washington: 48.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EDM Score
1.0
4
WSH Score
5.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.2 / 14.6
25.0 / 6.0
Faceoff %
48.8 / 54.5
46.3 / 53.7
Hits
18.6 / 19.1
16.0 / 11.0
Power Play %
3.3 / 27.7
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
29.8 / 28.6
22.0 / 30.0
Takeaways
5.6 / 4.4
7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
EDM
WSH
EDM
ML
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
Contextual Game News
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…
Penguins Trade Hallander to Oilers for Defenseman Stastney
Alexander Ovechkin to Retire After 2026-27 Season: A Look at His…