ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
3-1 | Road
72
SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
4-0 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
100%
GAELS
0%
RED WOLVES
--
GAELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Saint Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMC -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)
ARST By 1-7 points
0.4%
ARST By 8-14 points
0.0%
SMC By 1-7 points
2.7%
SMC By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas State
52
ARKANSAS STATE
Saint Mary's
78
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
Arkansas State
60
ARKANSAS STATE
Saint Mary's
75
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gaels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gaels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 19, 2025
ARST @ SMC
72 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+205.9% more
Saint Mary's: 4.2
vs
Arkansas State: 1.4
Rebounding (L5)
+18.5% more
Saint Mary's: 44.7
vs
Arkansas State: 37.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.8%
Saint Mary's: 40.0%
vs
Arkansas State: 28.1%
Assists (L5)
+11.2% more
Saint Mary's: 17.0
vs
Arkansas State: 15.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARST Score
52.0
72
SMC Score
78.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.0 / 28.1
50.0 / 31.0
Assists
17.0 / 15.3
17.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.2 / 1.4
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.2 / 46.8
49.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
79.5 / 71.7
76.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
44.7 / 37.7
40.0 / 35.0
Steals
5.2 / 7.3
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 11.3
13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
ARST
SMC
ARST
ML
56%
18-14
48%
15-16
82%
23-5
53%
16-14
ATS
62%
20-12
58%
18-13
83%
24-5
53%
16-14
TTL
53%
17-15
61%
19-12
100%
29-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
