HARVARD
CRIMSONHARV
4-1 | Road
80
PENN STATE
NITTANY LIONSPSU
4-0 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON
100%
NITTANY LIONS
0%
CRIMSON
--
NITTANY LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
84.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Penn State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)
HARV By 1-7 points
5.8%
HARV By 8-14 points
1.4%
PSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
PSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Harvard
35
HARVARD
Penn State
49
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
Harvard
65
HARVARD
Penn State
78
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nittany Lions
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nittany Lions
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nittany Lions (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Nittany Lions (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 84.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 19, 2025
HARV @ PSU
80 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+38.1% more
Penn State: 16.7
vs
Harvard: 12.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.1%
Penn State: 52.5%
vs
Harvard: 43.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Penn State: 41.2%
vs
Harvard: 37.3%
Blocks (L5)
+39.2% more
Harvard: 3.0
vs
Penn State: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HARV Score
35.0
80
PSU Score
49.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.2 / 37.3
26.0 / 44.0
Assists
16.7 / 12.1
12.0 / 21.0
Blocks
1.8 / 3.0
0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
52.5 / 43.5
54.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
70.7 / 80.1
68.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
30.9 / 33.3
28.0 / 25.0
Steals
7.5 / 8.3
9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 13.1
7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HARV
Advantage
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +2.6
PSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.7
ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HARV
Advantage
12-13-1
(48.0%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +2.6
PSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.7
ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HARV
9-17-0
O: 34.6% / U: 65.4%
Total +/-: -4.3
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
HARV
PSU
HARV
ML
72%
23-9
45%
13-16
56%
18-14
52%
15-14
ATS
72%
23-9
45%
13-16
56%
18-14
52%
15-14
TTL
66%
21-11
41%
12-17
100%
32-0
100%
29-0
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