Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Raiders @ Wolverines MTSU @ MICH

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

3-0  |  Road

61
FINAL
Wed, Nov 19 • 6:30 PM ET
Crisler Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

WOLVERINESMICH

3-0  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
📊
WOLVERINES
0%
BLUE RAIDERS --
WOLVERINES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Michigan)
Blue RaidersMTSU (-3.5) 0 WolverinesMICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Raiders Cover

46.0%

Wolverines Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MICH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

MTSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

MTSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

MICH By 1-7 points

26.2%

MICH By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
81
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
82
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
60
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
78
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolverines Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolverines Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolverines (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Wolverines (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o159.0 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u159.0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 MTSU @ MICH 61 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +52.8% more
Michigan: 6.3 vs Middle Tennessee: 4.1
Turnovers (L5) +51.0% more
Michigan: 16.0 vs Middle Tennessee: 10.6
Free Throw % (L5) +14.2%
Michigan: 77.9% vs Middle Tennessee: 63.7%
Steals (L5) +35.9% more
Middle Tennessee: 8.2 vs Michigan: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 81.0 61
MICH Score 82.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.5 / 32.0 20.0 / 27.0
Assists 17.8 / 16.8 14.0 / 8.0
Blocks 6.3 / 4.1 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 48.4 46.0 / 30.0
Free Throw % 77.9 / 63.7 73.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 43.5 / 41.1 48.0 / 40.0
Steals 5.2 / 8.2 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 10.6 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
MICH Advantage
37-3-0 (92.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
MICH Advantage
19-21-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
MTSU
MICH
MTSU
ML
78% 31-9
56% 18-14
63% 24-14
69% 22-10
ATS
78% 31-9
75% 24-8
63% 24-14
69% 22-10
TTL
57% 23-17
53% 17-15
100% 38-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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