Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Terrapins MSM @ MD

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

1-3  |  Road

90
FINAL
Wed, Nov 19 • 7:00 PM ET
XFINITY Center
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MARYLAND

TERRAPINSMD

3-1  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
TERRAPINS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
TERRAPINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
MARYLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Maryland)
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 TerrapinsMD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

0.8%

Terrapins Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MD -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MD)

MSM By 1-7 points

0.6%

MSM By 8-14 points

0.1%

MD By 1-7 points

4.0%

MD By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
72
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
96
MARYLAND
Simulated Score
60
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
80
MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Terrapins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Terrapins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Terrapins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Terrapins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 MSM @ MD 90 - 95
Nov 8, 2024 MSM @ MD 52 - 86
Nov 7, 2023 MSM @ MD 53 - 68
Nov 29, 2020 MSM @ MD 61 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +140.1% more
Maryland: 6.7 vs Mount St. Mary's: 2.8
Blocks (L5) +63.3% more
Maryland: 2.6 vs Mount St. Mary's: 1.6
Free Throw % (L5) +30.1%
Maryland: 80.9% vs Mount St. Mary's: 50.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Maryland: 45.4% vs Mount St. Mary's: 42.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 72.0 90
MD Score 96.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 33.6 44.0 / 47.0
Assists 12.6 / 14.1 8.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.6 / 1.6 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 42.0 40.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 80.9 / 50.8 79.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 36.4 35.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.7 / 2.8 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 16.7 11.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
MD
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
MD
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
MSM
MD
MSM
ML
70% 23-10
53% 17-15
67% 22-11
61% 19-12
ATS
64% 21-12
62% 20-12
67% 22-11
61% 19-12
TTL
64% 21-12
81% 26-6
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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