Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flyers @ Golden Eagles DAY @ MARQ

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

4-1  |  Road

77
FINAL
Wed, Nov 19 • 7:30 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

3-3  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
0%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
FLYERS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Dayton)
FlyersDAY (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesMARQ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

99.8%

Golden Eagles Cover

0.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAY -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

DAY By 1-7 points

1.4%

DAY By 8-14 points

5.8%

MARQ By 1-7 points

0.1%

MARQ By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
86
DAYTON
57
MARQUETTE
Simulated Score
74
DAYTON
78
MARQUETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Flyers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Flyers (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 DAY @ MARQ 77 - 71
Dec 14, 2024 MARQ @ DAY 63 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +43.6% more
Dayton: 4.1 vs Marquette: 2.3
Free Throw % (L5) +5.7%
Dayton: 76.0% vs Marquette: 70.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Dayton: 36.1% vs Marquette: 31.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Dayton: 46.7% vs Marquette: 42.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAY Score 86.0 77
MARQ Score 57.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 36.1 29.0 / 41.0
Assists 16.1 / 15.6 13.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.3 / 4.1 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 46.7 38.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 70.3 / 76.0 75.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 40.6 / 33.1 34.0 / 33.0
Steals 8.6 / 7.5 21.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 10.9 20.0 / 25.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MARQ
DAY
MARQ
DAY
ML
59% 19-13
65% 24-13
62% 20-12
64% 23-13
ATS
53% 17-15
68% 25-12
62% 20-12
64% 23-13
TTL
50% 16-16
57% 21-16
100% 32-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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