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SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

3-1  |  Road

95
FINAL
Wed, Nov 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Gallagher-Iba Arena
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

COWBOYSOKST

4-0  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
COWBOYS
0%
BULLS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Oklahoma State)
BullsUSF (-3.5) 0 CowboysOKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

9.7%

Cowboys Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKST -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKST)

USF By 1-7 points

6.8%

USF By 8-14 points

1.7%

OKST By 1-7 points

18.6%

OKST By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
69
SOUTH FLORIDA
82
OKLAHOMA STATE
Simulated Score
70
SOUTH FLORIDA
74
OKLAHOMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cowboys Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cowboys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 USF @ OKST 95 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.5% more
Oklahoma State: 14.7 vs South Florida: 10.1
Rebounding (L5) +9.2% more
Oklahoma State: 45.1 vs South Florida: 41.4
Blocks (L5) +23.3% more
South Florida: 5.2 vs Oklahoma State: 4.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
South Florida: 32.0% vs Oklahoma State: 29.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 69.0 95
OKST Score 82.0 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 32.0 50.0 / 38.0
Assists 15.8 / 15.5 20.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.0 / 5.2 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 47.0 59.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 73.7 / 75.4 62.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 45.1 / 41.4 37.0 / 35.0
Steals 10.1 / 10.2 8.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 10.1 19.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
OKST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
OKST
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
OKST
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
USF
OKST
USF
ML
60% 21-14
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
52% 16-15
ATS
57% 20-15
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
52% 16-15
TTL
57% 20-15
52% 17-16
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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