Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lumberjacks @ Bulldogs SFA @ FRES

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

LUMBERJACKSSFA

4-1  |  Road

78
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 9:00 PM ET
Save Mart Center
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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

4-2  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
LUMBERJACKS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Stephen F. Austin)
LumberjacksSFA (-3.5) 0 BulldogsFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lumberjacks Cover

84.1%

Bulldogs Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SFA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFA)

SFA By 1-7 points

23.0%

SFA By 8-14 points

27.2%

FRES By 1-7 points

10.7%

FRES By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
85
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
75
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
72
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
75
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lumberjacks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lumberjacks (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 SFA @ FRES 78 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +48.3% more
Stephen F. Austin: 4.9 vs Fresno State: 2.5
Assists (L5) +13.2% more
Stephen F. Austin: 13.8 vs Fresno State: 12.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
Stephen F. Austin: 43.6% vs Fresno State: 36.3%
Steals (L5) +52.6% more
Fresno State: 8.9 vs Stephen F. Austin: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFA Score 85.0 78
FRES Score 75.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 43.6 42.0 / 31.0
Assists 12.0 / 13.8 18.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.5 / 4.9 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 45.4 59.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 70.3 / 63.0 58.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 36.8 32.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.9 / 5.9 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 10.0 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA Advantage
28-6-0 (82.4%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA Advantage
23-9-0 (71.9%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
FRES
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.9
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
SFA
FRES
SFA
ML
59% 19-13
59% 17-12
74% 23-8
79% 23-6
ATS
75% 24-8
59% 17-12
74% 23-8
79% 23-6
TTL
56% 18-14
62% 18-11
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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