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NORTHWESTERN STATE

DEMONSNWST

1-3  |  Road

64
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 10:00 PM ET
The Sobrato Center
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

3-1  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
100%
📊
DONS
0%
DEMONS --
DONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
105.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (San Francisco)
DemonsNWST (-3.5) 0 DonsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Demons Cover

30.9%

Dons Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SF -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

NWST By 1-7 points

18.6%

NWST By 8-14 points

8.0%

SF By 1-7 points

27.2%

SF By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
50
NORTHWESTERN STATE
55
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
62
NORTHWESTERN STATE
85
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Dons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 105.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 NWST @ SF 64 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +30.8% more
San Francisco: 42.6 vs Northwestern State: 32.6
Turnovers (L5) +22.4% more
San Francisco: 14.5 vs Northwestern State: 11.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
San Francisco: 39.3% vs Northwestern State: 34.0%
Steals (L5) +13.6% more
Northwestern State: 8.6 vs San Francisco: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NWST Score 50.0 64
SF Score 55.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.3 / 34.0 43.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.5 / 14.8 21.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.1 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 45.4 53.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 76.8 71.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 42.6 / 32.6 33.0 / 27.0
Steals 7.4 / 8.6 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 11.9 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
SF Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
SF
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
NWST
SF
NWST
ML
39% 13-20
68% 21-10
64% 21-12
77% 23-7
ATS
42% 14-19
68% 21-10
64% 21-12
77% 23-7
TTL
73% 24-9
39% 12-19
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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