DETROIT
PISTONSDET
12-2 | Road
120
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
9-5 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
HAWKS
0%
PISTONS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
DET By 1-7 points
0.0%
DET By 8-14 points
0.0%
ATL By 1-7 points
0.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
87
DETROIT
Atlanta
123
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Detroit
109
DETROIT
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u229.0
Loss
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Sim
u229.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
ATL @ DET
130 - 129
Dec 12, 2025
ATL @ DET
115 - 142
Dec 1, 2025
ATL @ DET
98 - 99
Nov 18, 2025
DET @ ATL
120 - 112
Feb 23, 2025
DET @ ATL
148 - 143
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+18.2% more
Atlanta: 33.8
vs
Detroit: 28.6
Steals (L5)
+16.5% more
Atlanta: 12.2
vs
Detroit: 10.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.5%
Atlanta: 78.5%
vs
Detroit: 73.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
Atlanta: 39.1%
vs
Detroit: 34.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
87.0
120
ATL Score
123.0
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.1 / 34.2
34.0 / 32.0
Assists
33.8 / 28.6
31.0 / 28.0
Blocks
5.0 / 6.3
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.3 / 50.6
48.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
78.5 / 73.1
87.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
38.6 / 45.1
35.0 / 39.0
Steals
12.2 / 10.5
9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
16.7 / 15.7
19.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
DET
ATL
DET
ML
50%
52-52
55%
64-53
55%
48-40
49%
47-49
ATS
53%
55-48-1
53%
60-54-3
55%
48-40
49%
47-49
TTL
53%
55-48-1
60%
70-46-1
100%
88-0
100%
96-0
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