VERMONT
CATAMOUNTSUVM
4-0 | Road
90
BUFFALO
BULLSBUF
4-0 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
CATAMOUNTS
0%
BULLS
100%
CATAMOUNTS
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
VERMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Vermont)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UVM -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVM)
UVM By 1-7 points
20.1%
UVM By 8-14 points
27.2%
BUF By 1-7 points
8.0%
BUF By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Vermont
66
VERMONT
Buffalo
54
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Vermont
76
VERMONT
Buffalo
72
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Catamounts
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Catamounts (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 18, 2025
UVM @ BUF
90 - 94
Nov 19, 2024
BUF @ UVM
67 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+21.0% more
Vermont: 15.6
vs
Buffalo: 12.3
Blocks (L5)
+16.3% more
Vermont: 3.7
vs
Buffalo: 3.1
Rebounding (L5)
+14.7% more
Vermont: 38.7
vs
Buffalo: 33.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.4%
Vermont: 42.4%
vs
Buffalo: 36.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVM Score
66.0
90
BUF Score
54.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 42.4
39.0 / 48.0
Assists
12.3 / 15.6
15.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.1 / 3.7
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 49.6
51.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
74.0 / 77.4
84.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
33.0 / 38.7
28.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.9 / 4.5
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 11.6
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVM
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
BUF
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVM
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
BUF
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UVM
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.9
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
UVM
BUF
UVM
ML
45%
14-17
56%
19-15
45%
14-17
65%
22-12
ATS
55%
17-14
62%
21-13
45%
14-17
65%
22-12
TTL
48%
15-16
47%
16-18
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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