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AUSTIN PEAY

GOVERNORSAPSU

3-2  |  Road

65
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 8:00 PM ET
The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

5-0  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
GOVERNORS
100%
📊
REBELS
0%
GOVERNORS --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Ole Miss)
GovernorsAPSU (-3.5) 0 RebelsMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Governors Cover

15.9%

Rebels Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MISS -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

APSU By 1-7 points

10.7%

APSU By 8-14 points

3.3%

MISS By 1-7 points

23.0%

MISS By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
73
AUSTIN PEAY
83
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
63
AUSTIN PEAY
81
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rebels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rebels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 APSU @ MISS 65 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +111.7% more
Ole Miss: 4.9 vs Austin Peay: 2.3
Assists (L5) +14.8% more
Ole Miss: 15.6 vs Austin Peay: 13.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.3%
Ole Miss: 39.8% vs Austin Peay: 30.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
Ole Miss: 73.6% vs Austin Peay: 68.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APSU Score 73.0 65
MISS Score 83.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 30.5 29.0 / 27.0
Assists 15.6 / 13.6 18.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.9 / 2.3 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 43.2 41.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 68.5 71.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 38.6 / 38.2 42.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.2 / 10.6 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 7.6 / 13.0 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU Advantage
22-9-0 (71.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
MISS
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
MISS
--
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +2.2
MISS
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
APSU
MISS
APSU
ML
48% 16-17
53% 16-14
52% 17-16
59% 16-11
ATS
61% 20-13
57% 17-13
52% 17-16
59% 16-11
TTL
64% 21-12
57% 17-13
100% 33-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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