Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Lakers UTAH @ LAL

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

5-8  |  Road

126
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 10:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

10-4  |  Home

140
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
JAZZ --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Utah)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

99.2%

Lakers Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTAH -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

UTAH By 1-7 points

4.0%

UTAH By 8-14 points

12.2%

LAL By 1-7 points

0.6%

LAL By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
124
UTAH
100
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
108
UTAH
115
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jazz Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jazz (-13) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u239.0 Loss
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim u239.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 UTAH @ LAL 107 - 131
Dec 18, 2025 LAL @ UTAH 143 - 135
Nov 23, 2025 LAL @ UTAH 108 - 106
Nov 18, 2025 UTAH @ LAL 126 - 140
Feb 12, 2025 LAL @ UTAH 119 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +25.5% more
Utah: 31.4 vs Los Angeles: 23.4
Blocks (L5) +24.1% more
Utah: 4.5 vs Los Angeles: 3.4
Rebounding (L5) +11.1% more
Utah: 47.6 vs Los Angeles: 42.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Utah: 37.4% vs Los Angeles: 34.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 124.0 126
LAL Score 100.0 140
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 37.4 34.0 / 29.0
Assists 23.4 / 31.4 31.0 / 33.0
Blocks 3.4 / 4.5 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.6 / 45.9 60.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 79.3 / 76.3 73.0 / 94.0
Rebounding 42.3 / 47.6 41.0 / 33.0
Steals 11.3 / 8.7 9.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 16.5 / 14.8 17.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
UTAH
LAL
UTAH
ML
61% 68-43
60% 96-63
54% 49-42
48% 40-43
ATS
61% 67-43-1
68% 108-51
54% 49-42
48% 40-43
TTL
61% 66-43-2
75% 119-39-1
100% 91-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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