PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
8-6 | Road
127
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
6-7 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
SUNS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
200.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-50.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +50.0 points (Portland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -50.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)
PHX By 1-7 points
0.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
0.0%
POR By 1-7 points
0.0%
POR By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
75
PHOENIX
Portland
125
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Phoenix
105
PHOENIX
Portland
118
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trail Blazers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trail Blazers (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -50.0
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u237.5
Win
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Sim
u237.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 14, 2026
POR @ PHX
114 - 110
Feb 22, 2026
POR @ PHX
92 - 77
Feb 3, 2026
PHX @ POR
130 - 125
Nov 18, 2025
PHX @ POR
127 - 110
Feb 3, 2025
PHX @ POR
119 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+32.4% more
Phoenix: 9.1
vs
Portland: 6.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.8%
Phoenix: 83.2%
vs
Portland: 77.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
Phoenix: 50.0%
vs
Portland: 45.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
Phoenix: 37.3%
vs
Portland: 33.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
75.0
127
POR Score
125.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 37.3
24.0 / 35.0
Assists
22.6 / 24.1
24.0 / 24.0
Blocks
3.8 / 4.0
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 50.0
43.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
77.4 / 83.2
80.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
44.5 / 43.4
43.0 / 46.0
Steals
6.2 / 9.1
7.0 / 19.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 14.3
20.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
PHX
POR
PHX
ML
53%
56-49
57%
60-45
55%
49-40
51%
45-43
ATS
62%
65-39-1
58%
59-43-3
55%
49-40
51%
45-43
TTL
56%
58-46-1
59%
61-42-2
100%
89-0
100%
88-0
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