UT MARTIN
SKYHAWKSUTM
3-1 | Road
73
FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLESFSU
3-1 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
100%
SEMINOLES
0%
SKYHAWKS
--
SEMINOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Florida State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)
UTM By 1-7 points
0.3%
UTM By 8-14 points
0.0%
FSU By 1-7 points
2.2%
FSU By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UT Martin
49
UT MARTIN
Florida State
76
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
UT Martin
64
UT MARTIN
Florida State
81
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seminoles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles (-19.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Seminoles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 18, 2025
UTM @ FSU
73 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.6%
Florida State: 79.5%
vs
UT Martin: 67.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+32.3% more
UT Martin: 16.6
vs
Florida State: 11.2
Assists (L5)
+20.4% more
UT Martin: 17.3
vs
Florida State: 13.8
Steals (L5)
+19.0% more
UT Martin: 10.5
vs
Florida State: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTM Score
49.0
73
FSU Score
76.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.8 / 38.1
34.0 / 41.0
Assists
13.8 / 17.3
21.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.6 / 4.1
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
42.8 / 49.6
43.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
79.5 / 67.9
57.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
37.9 / 39.0
34.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.5 / 10.5
19.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 16.6
6.0 / 26.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
FSU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
FSU
Advantage
19-13-1
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0%
Total +/-: -8.2
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
UTM
FSU
UTM
ML
64%
21-12
69%
22-10
59%
19-13
69%
20-9
ATS
55%
18-15
56%
18-14
59%
19-13
69%
20-9
TTL
48%
16-17
44%
14-18
100%
32-0
100%
29-0
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