Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Trojans @ Racers LR @ MUR

LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

2-3  |  Road

68
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 8:00 PM ET
CFSB Center
View Odds Details →

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

4-1  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
📊
RACERS
100%
TROJANS --
RACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Little Rock)
TrojansLR (-3.5) 0 RacersMUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

97.1%

Racers Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LR -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)

LR By 1-7 points

9.3%

LR By 8-14 points

20.1%

MUR By 1-7 points

2.2%

MUR By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
80
LITTLE ROCK
61
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
73
LITTLE ROCK
78
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trojans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Racers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trojans (-13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Racers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 LR @ MUR 68 - 89
Dec 18, 2023 MUR @ LR 66 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.2% more
Little Rock: 18.7 vs Murray State: 14.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Little Rock: 46.3% vs Murray State: 40.5%
Assists (L5) +23.4% more
Murray State: 17.1 vs Little Rock: 13.8
Free Throw % (L5) +21.9%
Murray State: 78.0% vs Little Rock: 56.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LR Score 80.0 68
MUR Score 61.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.5 / 46.3 47.0 / 33.0
Assists 17.1 / 13.8 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.4 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 47.0 51.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 78.0 / 56.1 74.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 33.0 32.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.7 / 7.9 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 18.7 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
MUR Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
LR
MUR
LR
ML
58% 19-14
52% 16-15
61% 20-13
68% 17-8
ATS
52% 17-16
45% 14-17
61% 20-13
68% 17-8
TTL
70% 23-10
58% 18-13
100% 33-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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