Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Purple Aces UTA @ EVAN

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

3-1  |  Road

84
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 8:00 PM ET
Ford Center
View Odds Details →

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

2-2  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
PURPLE ACES
100%
MAVERICKS --
PURPLE ACES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (UT Arlington)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 Purple AcesEVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

81.6%

Purple Aces Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTA -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

UTA By 1-7 points

24.3%

UTA By 8-14 points

26.8%

EVAN By 1-7 points

12.2%

EVAN By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
84
UT ARLINGTON
75
EVANSVILLE
Simulated Score
68
UT ARLINGTON
72
EVANSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Purple Aces Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Purple Aces (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 UTA @ EVAN 84 - 76
Dec 18, 2024 EVAN @ UTA 54 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +47.6% more
UT Arlington: 5.6 vs Evansville: 3.0
Assists (L5) +22.3% more
UT Arlington: 19.5 vs Evansville: 15.2
Turnovers (L5) +21.4% more
UT Arlington: 15.1 vs Evansville: 11.9
Rebounding (L5) +18.2% more
UT Arlington: 45.5 vs Evansville: 37.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 84.0 84
EVAN Score 75.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.9 / 32.1 32.0 / 50.0
Assists 15.2 / 19.5 14.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.0 / 5.6 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 46.1 46.0 / 62.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 52.4 71.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 37.2 / 45.5 17.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.2 / 8.5 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 15.1 12.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
EVAN
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EVAN
UTA
EVAN
UTA
ML
56% 18-14
50% 16-16
62% 20-12
62% 20-12
ATS
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
62% 20-12
TTL
62% 20-12
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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