ABILENE CHRISTIAN
WILDCATSACU
3-2 | Road
49
TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
4-2 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
BOBCATS
100%
WILDCATS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Abilene Christian)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ACU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ACU)
ACU By 1-7 points
18.6%
ACU By 8-14 points
26.8%
TXST By 1-7 points
6.8%
TXST By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Abilene Christian
82
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Texas State
69
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
Abilene Christian
68
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Texas State
72
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 18, 2025
ACU @ TXST
49 - 63
Nov 16, 2024
TXST @ ACU
60 - 72
Nov 25, 2019
ACU @ TXST
56 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+15.7% more
Abilene Christian: 17.0
vs
Texas State: 14.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.8%
Abilene Christian: 77.7%
vs
Texas State: 74.8%
Steals (L5)
+23.7% more
Texas State: 8.7
vs
Abilene Christian: 7.1
Blocks (L5)
+11.8% more
Texas State: 4.7
vs
Abilene Christian: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ACU Score
82.0
49
TXST Score
69.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 28.6
63.0 / 33.0
Assists
14.3 / 17.0
8.0 / 6.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.2
9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.1 / 47.4
46.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
74.8 / 77.7
73.0 / 53.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 38.9
38.0 / 34.0
Steals
8.7 / 7.1
11.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 12.8
19.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ACU
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: -2.6
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ACU
13-16-1
(44.8%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: -2.6
TXST
Advantage
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +1.4
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
ACU
TXST
ACU
ML
42%
13-18
67%
22-11
83%
25-5
70%
23-10
ATS
48%
15-16
55%
18-15
84%
26-5
70%
23-10
TTL
65%
20-11
58%
19-14
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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