Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Redhawks @ Hawkeyes SEMO @ IOWA

SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE

REDHAWKSSEMO

1-4  |  Road

70
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 8:30 PM ET
Carver-Hawkeye Arena
View Odds Details →

IOWA

HAWKEYESIOWA

4-0  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
100%
📊
HAWKEYES
0%
REDHAWKS --
HAWKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Iowa)
RedhawksSEMO (-3.5) 0 HawkeyesIOWA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Redhawks Cover

1.8%

Hawkeyes Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IOWA -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

SEMO By 1-7 points

1.4%

SEMO By 8-14 points

0.2%

IOWA By 1-7 points

6.8%

IOWA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
88
IOWA
Simulated Score
65
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
88
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hawkeyes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawkeyes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawkeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Hawkeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 SEMO @ IOWA 70 - 99
Dec 17, 2022 SEMO @ IOWA 75 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +33.3% more
Iowa: 18.6 vs Southeast Missouri State: 14.0
Field Goal % (L5) +10.0%
Iowa: 54.8% vs Southeast Missouri State: 44.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.3%
Iowa: 37.1% vs Southeast Missouri State: 28.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +7.8%
Iowa: 73.9% vs Southeast Missouri State: 66.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEMO Score 67.0 70
IOWA Score 88.0 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 28.8 43.0 / 38.0
Assists 18.6 / 14.0 17.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.9 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 54.8 / 44.9 61.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 66.1 74.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 31.5 28.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.6 / 8.1 11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 11.4 11.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEMO
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
IOWA Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEMO
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
IOWA Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -2.4
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
SEMO
IOWA
SEMO
ML
59% 22-15
64% 21-12
78% 28-8
50% 15-15
ATS
76% 28-9
67% 22-11
78% 28-8
50% 15-15
TTL
57% 21-16
58% 19-14
100% 36-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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