Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mastodons @ Utes PFW @ UTAH

PURDUE FORT WAYNE

MASTODONSPFW

2-3  |  Road

77
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 9:00 PM ET
Jon M. Huntsman Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

UTESUTAH

4-0  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
MASTODONS
0%
📊
UTES
100%
MASTODONS --
UTES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Purdue Fort Wayne)
MastodonsPFW (-3.5) 0 UtesUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mastodons Cover

99.9%

Utes Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PFW -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PFW)

PFW By 1-7 points

0.8%

PFW By 8-14 points

4.0%

UTAH By 1-7 points

0.1%

UTAH By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
90
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
59
UTAH
Simulated Score
65
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
78
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mastodons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Utes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mastodons (+13) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Utes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 PFW @ UTAH 77 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +54.4% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 12.3 vs Utah: 5.6
Assists (L5) +11.9% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 16.4 vs Utah: 14.4
Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Purdue Fort Wayne: 49.9% vs Utah: 45.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Purdue Fort Wayne: 34.2% vs Utah: 32.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PFW Score 90.0 77
UTAH Score 59.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 34.2 41.0 / 33.0
Assists 14.4 / 16.4 17.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.8 / 3.6 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 49.9 52.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 73.4 / 72.9 79.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 43.5 / 37.9 33.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.6 / 12.3 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 9.7 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PFW Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
UTAH
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PFW
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
UTAH Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: -0.7
UTAH
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
PFW
UTAH
PFW
ML
56% 18-14
59% 19-13
67% 20-10
74% 23-8
ATS
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
67% 20-10
74% 23-8
TTL
41% 13-19
59% 19-13
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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