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TROY

TROJANSTROY

3-2  |  Road

108
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 10:00 PM ET
Viejas Arena
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

2-0  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
📊
AZTECS
0%
TROJANS --
AZTECS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego State)
TrojansTROY (-3.5) 0 AztecsSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

46.0%

Aztecs Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

TROY By 1-7 points

24.3%

TROY By 8-14 points

13.7%

SDSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

SDSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
63
TROY
64
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
60
TROY
72
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aztecs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aztecs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aztecs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Aztecs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 TROY @ SDSU 108 - 107
Dec 5, 2022 TROY @ SDSU 55 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +48.7% more
San Diego State: 4.6 vs Troy: 3.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
San Diego State: 36.8% vs Troy: 33.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
San Diego State: 48.5% vs Troy: 45.6%
Steals (L5) +14.9% more
Troy: 10.8 vs San Diego State: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 63.0 108
SDSU Score 64.0 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 33.5 39.0 / 35.0
Assists 15.0 / 16.9 18.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.1 7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 45.6 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 78.6 71.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 28.8 / 33.3 50.0 / 41.0
Steals 9.2 / 10.8 9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 11.8 20.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
SDSU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
SDSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.8
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
TROY
SDSU
TROY
ML
62% 20-12
59% 20-14
72% 23-9
61% 20-13
ATS
69% 22-10
65% 22-12
72% 23-9
61% 20-13
TTL
75% 24-8
56% 19-15
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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