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UC DAVIS

AGGIESUCD

3-1  |  Road

75
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 10:00 PM ET
Lawlor Events Center
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

WOLF PACKNEV

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71
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
WOLF PACK
0%
AGGIES --
WOLF PACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
106.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Nevada)
AggiesUCD (-3.5) 0 Wolf PackNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

21.2%

Wolf Pack Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NEV -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)

UCD By 1-7 points

13.7%

UCD By 8-14 points

4.8%

NEV By 1-7 points

25.3%

NEV By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
49
UC DAVIS
57
NEVADA
Simulated Score
65
UC DAVIS
78
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolf Pack Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolf Pack Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolf Pack (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Wolf Pack (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 106.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 UCD @ NEV 75 - 71
Dec 6, 2023 UCD @ NEV 68 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +13.9% more
Nevada: 39.5 vs UC Davis: 34.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Nevada: 33.5% vs UC Davis: 31.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +1.8%
Nevada: 76.5% vs UC Davis: 74.7%
Turnovers (L5) +38.7% more
UC Davis: 14.3 vs Nevada: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCD Score 49.0 75
NEV Score 57.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 31.1 40.0 / 42.0
Assists 15.1 / 15.1 14.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.1 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 44.5 40.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 76.5 / 74.7 72.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 39.5 / 34.7 32.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.8 / 8.4 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 14.3 17.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
NEV Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
NEV Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.6
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
UCD
NEV
UCD
ML
62% 23-14
58% 19-14
73% 27-10
64% 21-12
ATS
73% 27-10
61% 20-13
73% 27-10
64% 21-12
TTL
49% 18-19
61% 20-13
100% 37-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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