UC RIVERSIDE
HIGHLANDERSUCR
2-3 | Road
57
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
LANCERSCBU
4-0 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
0%
LANCERS
100%
HIGHLANDERS
--
LANCERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
UC RIVERSIDE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (UC Riverside)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCR -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCR)
UCR By 1-7 points
18.6%
UCR By 8-14 points
26.8%
CBU By 1-7 points
6.8%
CBU By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Riverside
85
UC RIVERSIDE
California Baptist
72
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Simulated Score
UC Riverside
68
UC RIVERSIDE
California Baptist
72
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Highlanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lancers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Highlanders (-12.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Lancers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 18, 2025
UCR @ CBU
57 - 80
Nov 12, 2024
UCR @ CBU
70 - 69
Dec 16, 2023
CBU @ UCR
70 - 69
Nov 30, 2022
UCR @ CBU
60 - 65
Dec 12, 2021
CBU @ UCR
54 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+45.5% more
UC Riverside: 2.8
vs
California Baptist: 1.5
Turnovers (L5)
+32.0% more
UC Riverside: 15.6
vs
California Baptist: 10.6
Assists (L5)
+22.4% more
UC Riverside: 14.2
vs
California Baptist: 11.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.1%
UC Riverside: 46.6%
vs
California Baptist: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCR Score
85.0
57
CBU Score
72.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.4 / 36.3
19.0 / 19.0
Assists
11.0 / 14.2
8.0 / 8.0
Blocks
1.5 / 2.8
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
39.5 / 46.6
41.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
72.9 / 78.5
65.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
44.8 / 36.0
50.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.2 / 4.7
12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 15.6
12.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
CBU
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR
14-14-2
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
CBU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.3
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBU
UCR
CBU
UCR
ML
50%
17-17
66%
21-11
76%
25-8
75%
24-8
ATS
53%
18-16
59%
19-13
76%
25-8
75%
24-8
TTL
47%
16-18
66%
21-11
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
