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NEW JERSEY

DEVILSNJ

13-4-1  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

9-7-2  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Jonas Siegenthaler
GOALTENDER

Jonas Siegenthaler

#71 | Defense
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jonas Siegenthaler None-None -- -- --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 1.00 0.969 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 1.00
-- Save % 0.969
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
DEVILS
0%
📊
LIGHTNING
100%
DEVILS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
DevilsNJ (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Devils Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TB +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

NJ By 1 goal

19.7%

NJ By 2-3 goals

29.6%

TB By 1 goal

12.1%

TB By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
NEW JERSEY
2
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
NEW JERSEY
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Devils Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Push
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 TB @ NJ 8 - 4
Nov 18, 2025 NJ @ TB 1 - 5
Oct 11, 2025 NJ @ TB 5 - 3
Jan 11, 2025 TB @ NJ 2 - 3
Nov 16, 2024 NJ @ TB 0 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +23.6% more
New Jersey: 4.4 vs Tampa Bay: 3.4
Blocked Shots (L5) +20.4% more
New Jersey: 15.7 vs Tampa Bay: 12.5
Shots on Goal (L5) +14.6% more
New Jersey: 31.8 vs Tampa Bay: 27.2
Power Play % (L5) +7.8%
New Jersey: 16.8% vs Tampa Bay: 9.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NJ Score 3.0 1
TB Score 2.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.5 / 15.7 7.0 / 11.0
Faceoff % 45.4 / 51.4 43.6 / 56.4
Hits 21.2 / 16.3 14.0 / 17.0
Power Play % 9.0 / 16.8 66.7 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 27.2 / 31.8 29.0 / 32.0
Takeaways 3.4 / 4.4 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
84%MONEY16%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NJ
TB
NJ
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 2-1
0% 0-2-1
100% 3-0
50% 1-1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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