Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri @ Oklahoma MIZ @ OU

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

7-3  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMAOU

8-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Oliver Robbins
KEY GAME

Oliver Robbins

#48 | Place kicker
@
Grayson Miller
KEY GAME

Grayson Miller

#43 | Place kicker
Player
Oliver Robbins None-None
Grayson Miller None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI
0%
📊
OKLAHOMA
100%
MISSOURI --
OKLAHOMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Missouri)
MissouriMIZ (-3.5) 0 OklahomaOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri Cover

76.2%

Oklahoma Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIZ -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

MIZ By 1-6 points

15.3%

MIZ By 7-13 points

19.7%

OU By 1-6 points

10.7%

OU By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
MISSOURI
14
OKLAHOMA
Simulated Score
27
MISSOURI
34
OKLAHOMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Missouri Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oklahoma Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Missouri (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Oklahoma (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 MIZ @ OU 6 - 17
Nov 9, 2024 OU @ MIZ 23 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +46.5% more
Missouri: 1.7 vs Oklahoma: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.2% more
Missouri: 235.8 vs Oklahoma: 126.8
Total Yards (L5) +22.3% more
Missouri: 387.3 vs Oklahoma: 300.7
First Downs (L5) +18.8% more
Missouri: 20.0 vs Oklahoma: 16.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score 24.0 6
OU Score 14.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.2 / 20.0 14.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 126.8 / 235.8 103.0 / 70.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 300.7 / 387.3 276.0 / 301.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.7 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
OU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
OU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
OU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OU
MIZ
OU
MIZ
ML
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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