Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Minnesota @ Northwestern MINN @ NU

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

6-4  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 12:00 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

5-5  |  Home

38
Key Game
Zack Harden
KEY GAME

Zack Harden

#4 | Defensive Back
@
Ore Adeyi
KEY GAME

Ore Adeyi

#7 | Defensive Back
Player
Zack Harden None-None
Ore Adeyi None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MINNESOTA
100%
📊
NORTHWESTERN
0%
MINNESOTA --
NORTHWESTERN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Northwestern)
MinnesotaMINN (-3.5) 0 NorthwesternNU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Minnesota Cover

23.8%

Northwestern Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)

MINN By 1-6 points

10.7%

MINN By 7-13 points

7.3%

NU By 1-6 points

15.3%

NU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
14
MINNESOTA
24
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
21
MINNESOTA
24
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Northwestern Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Northwestern Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Northwestern (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Northwestern (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 MINN @ NU 35 - 38
Sep 23, 2023 MINN @ NU 34 - 37
Nov 12, 2022 NU @ MINN 3 - 31
Oct 30, 2021 MINN @ NU 41 - 14
Nov 23, 2019 MINN @ NU 38 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +61.4% more
Northwestern: 131.2 vs Minnesota: 81.3
Turnovers (L5) +55.0% more
Northwestern: 1.1 vs Minnesota: 0.6
Total Yards (L5) +22.5% more
Northwestern: 299.5 vs Minnesota: 244.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MINN Score 14.0 35
NU Score 24.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.9 / 15.1 25.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 131.2 / 81.3 220.0 / 59.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.57 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.68 / 0.32
Total Yards 299.5 / 244.5 525.0 / 323.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
NU
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MINN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
NU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MINN
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.9
NU
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
MINN
NU
MINN
ML
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
33% 1-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Brent Venables Embraces Red River Rivalry Despite Struggles Agai…
si 1 day, 7 hours ago
Purdue Insider Breaks Down Gophers Clash, NIL Challenges, and Ij…
twincities 1 day, 7 hours ago
Michigan's $12.5M Gamble on Bryce Underwood: No Return Yet
sportingnews 2 days, 1 hour ago
Michigan Tight End Zack Marshall Issues Apology for Leaked Messa…
yahoo 2 days, 1 hour ago
Jedd Fisch Hints at Offensive Line Shakeup as Landen Hatchett Ne…
yahoo 2 days, 7 hours ago