TULSA
TULSATLSA
3-7 | Road
26
ARMY
ARMYARMY
5-4 | Home
25
Key Game
KEY GAME
Devin Robinson
#2 | Defensive Back@
KEY GAME
Dawson Jones
#95 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Devin Robinson | None-None |
| Dawson Jones | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULSA
100%
ARMY
0%
TULSA
--
ARMY
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
24.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ARMY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Army)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARMY -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARMY)
TLSA By 1-6 points
10.7%
TLSA By 7-13 points
7.3%
ARMY By 1-6 points
15.3%
ARMY By 7-13 points
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Tulsa
7
TULSA
Army
17
ARMY
Simulated Score
Tulsa
17
TULSA
Army
20
ARMY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Army
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Army
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Army (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim
Army (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 24.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 37.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 22, 2025
TLSA @ ARMY
26 - 25
Oct 5, 2024
ARMY @ TLSA
49 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+19.4% more
Army: 235.2
vs
Tulsa: 196.9
Turnovers (L5)
+77.3% more
Tulsa: 1.3
vs
Army: 0.3
Total Yards (L5)
+26.7% more
Tulsa: 414.2
vs
Army: 303.6
First Downs (L5)
+18.8% more
Tulsa: 23.1
vs
Army: 18.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score
7.0
26
ARMY Score
17.0
25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
18.7 / 23.1
19.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards
235.2 / 196.9
247.0 / 230.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.46 / 0.58
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.5
0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards
303.6 / 414.2
311.0 / 497.0
Turnovers
0.3 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.9
ARMY
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 13.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.9
ARMY
1-2-1
(33.3%)
Margin: 13.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -5.7
ARMY
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARMY
TLSA
ARMY
TLSA
ML
100%
4-0
60%
3-2
75%
3-1
100%
5-0
ATS
75%
3-1
60%
3-2
50%
2-2
20%
1-4
TTL
50%
2-2
40%
2-3
50%
2-2
80%
4-1
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