Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Baylor @ Arizona BAY @ ARIZ

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

5-5  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 1:00 PM ET
Arizona Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

7-3  |  Home

41
Key Game
Bo Onu
KEY GAME

Bo Onu

#21 | Safety
@
Michael Salgado-Medina
KEY GAME

Michael Salgado-Medina

#19 | Place kicker
Player
Bo Onu None-None
Michael Salgado-Medina None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BAYLOR
100%
📊
ARIZONA
0%
BAYLOR --
ARIZONA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
75.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Arizona)
BaylorBAY (-3.5) 0 ArizonaARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Baylor Cover

30.9%

Arizona Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARIZ -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

BAY By 1-6 points

12.9%

BAY By 7-13 points

9.6%

ARIZ By 1-6 points

16.5%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
34
BAYLOR
41
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
24
BAYLOR
31
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arizona Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arizona Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arizona (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Arizona (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 75.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 BAY @ ARIZ 17 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.7% more
Arizona: 163.6 vs Baylor: 137.8
Turnovers (L5) +68.2% more
Baylor: 1.9 vs Arizona: 0.6
First Downs (L5) +15.8% more
Baylor: 25.0 vs Arizona: 21.0
Total Yards (L5) +10.8% more
Baylor: 459.3 vs Arizona: 409.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAY Score 34.0 17
ARIZ Score 41.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 25.0 21.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 163.6 / 137.8 172.0 / 181.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 409.5 / 459.3 355.0 / 343.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.9 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
ARIZ
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
ARIZ
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
BAY
ARIZ
BAY
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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