Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nevada @ Wyoming NEV @ WYO

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

2-8  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 2:00 PM ET
War Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

WYOMING

WYOMINGWYO

4-6  |  Home

7
Key Game
Joe McFadden
KEY GAME

Joe McFadden

#84 | Place kicker
@
Bart Edmiston
KEY GAME

Bart Edmiston

#18 | Punter
Player
Joe McFadden None-None
Bart Edmiston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEVADA
100%
📊
WYOMING
0%
NEVADA --
WYOMING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
WYOMING
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Wyoming)
NevadaNEV (-3.5) 0 WyomingWYO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nevada Cover

23.8%

Wyoming Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WYO -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WYO)

NEV By 1-6 points

10.7%

NEV By 7-13 points

7.3%

WYO By 1-6 points

15.3%

WYO By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
14
NEVADA
24
WYOMING
Simulated Score
23
NEVADA
27
WYOMING
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wyoming Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Wyoming Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wyoming (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Wyoming (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 NEV @ WYO 13 - 7
Nov 25, 2023 WYO @ NEV 42 - 6
Oct 24, 2020 WYO @ NEV 34 - 37
Oct 26, 2019 NEV @ WYO 3 - 31
Oct 22, 2016 WYO @ NEV 42 - 34
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +17.8% more
Nevada: 17.2 vs Wyoming: 14.1
Total Yards (L5) +13.6% more
Nevada: 312.7 vs Wyoming: 270.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.4% more
Nevada: 145.3 vs Wyoming: 131.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEV Score 14.0 13
WYO Score 24.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.1 / 17.2 15.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 131.7 / 145.3 68.0 / 213.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 270.2 / 312.7 220.0 / 271.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.9 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
WYO Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
WYO
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
WYO
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WYO
NEV
WYO
NEV
ML
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
TTL
0% 0-5
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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