Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Marshall @ App State MRSH @ APP

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

5-5  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 2:30 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

4-6  |  Home

26
Key Game
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw
KEY GAME

Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw

#5 | Wide Receiver
@
Caleb Pitts
KEY GAME

Caleb Pitts

#94 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw None-None
Caleb Pitts None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARSHALL
0%
📊
APP STATE
100%
MARSHALL --
APP STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
75.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Marshall)
MarshallMRSH (-3.5) 0 App StateAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marshall Cover

69.1%

App State Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MRSH -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

MRSH By 1-6 points

16.5%

MRSH By 7-13 points

19.3%

APP By 1-6 points

12.9%

APP By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
41
MARSHALL
34
APP STATE
Simulated Score
24
MARSHALL
28
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marshall Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim App State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marshall (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim App State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 75.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 MRSH @ APP 24 - 26
Oct 5, 2024 APP @ MRSH 37 - 52
Nov 4, 2023 MRSH @ APP 9 - 31
Nov 12, 2022 APP @ MRSH 21 - 28
Sep 23, 2021 MRSH @ APP 30 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +68.2% more
Marshall: 213.4 vs App State: 67.9
Total Yards (L5) +29.4% more
Marshall: 448.7 vs App State: 316.6
First Downs (L5) +22.4% more
Marshall: 23.9 vs App State: 18.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Marshall: 0.4 vs App State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 41.0 24
APP Score 34.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 23.9 18.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 67.9 / 213.4 142.0 / 238.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.35 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 316.6 / 448.7 276.0 / 438.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.0 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
98%MONEY2%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.5
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
MRSH
APP
MRSH
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
ATS
0% 0-4
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
TTL
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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