Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Florida @ UAB USF @ UAB

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

7-3  |  Road

48
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 3:00 PM ET
Protective Stadium
View Odds Details →

UAB

UABUAB

3-7  |  Home

18
Key Game
Nico Gramatica
KEY GAME

Nico Gramatica

#7 | Place kicker
@
Jonah Delange
KEY GAME

Jonah Delange

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Nico Gramatica None-None
Jonah Delange None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH FLORIDA
0%
📊
UAB
100%
SOUTH FLORIDA --
UAB --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
90.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (South Florida)
South FloridaUSF (-3.5) 0 UABUAB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Florida Cover

94.2%

UAB Cover

5.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USF -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

USF By 1-6 points

7.2%

USF By 7-13 points

13.8%

UAB By 1-6 points

3.3%

UAB By 7-13 points

1.5%

AI Model Projected Score
56
SOUTH FLORIDA
34
UAB
Simulated Score
24
SOUTH FLORIDA
27
UAB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI South Florida Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UAB Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI South Florida (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
C
Sim UAB (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 90.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 USF @ UAB 48 - 18
Oct 19, 2024 UAB @ USF 25 - 35
Oct 7, 2023 USF @ UAB 35 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.7% more
South Florida: 240.5 vs UAB: 147.5
Total Yards (L5) +23.3% more
South Florida: 528.0 vs UAB: 405.1
Turnovers (L5) +47.3% more
UAB: 2.2 vs South Florida: 1.5
Time of Possession (L5) +11.0% more
UAB: 0.5 vs South Florida: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 56.0 48
UAB Score 34.0 18
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 24.3 27.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 147.5 / 240.5 131.0 / 191.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 405.1 / 528.0 382.0 / 544.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.5 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
UAB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
UAB Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
UAB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
USF
UAB
USF
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1-1
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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