Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UConn @ FAU CONN @ FAU

UCONN

UCONNCONN

8-3  |  Road

48
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 3:00 PM ET
Flagler Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

4-6  |  Home

45
Key Game
Tucker McDonald
KEY GAME

Tucker McDonald

#12 | Quarterback
@
Zyere Horton
KEY GAME

Zyere Horton

#28 | Linebacker
Player
Tucker McDonald None-None
Zyere Horton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCONN
0%
📊
FAU
100%
UCONN --
FAU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (UConn)
UConnCONN (-3.5) 0 FAUFAU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UConn Cover

58.5%

FAU Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CONN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)

CONN By 1-6 points

17.0%

CONN By 7-13 points

17.5%

FAU By 1-6 points

15.3%

FAU By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
34
UCONN
31
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Simulated Score
20
UCONN
31
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI UConn Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim FAU Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UConn (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim FAU (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 CONN @ FAU 48 - 45
Sep 21, 2024 FAU @ CONN 14 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.2% more
UConn: 154.0 vs Florida Atlantic: 95.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
UConn: 0.5 vs Florida Atlantic: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +203.0% more
Florida Atlantic: 2.4 vs UConn: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +19.7% more
Florida Atlantic: 24.3 vs UConn: 20.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CONN Score 34.0 48
FAU Score 31.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.3 / 20.3 37.0 / 31.0
Rushing Yards 95.2 / 154.0 193.0 / 154.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 436.8 / 409.0 687.0 / 600.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
4%MONEY96%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
FAU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
CONN
FAU
CONN
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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