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SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

2-8  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 3:00 PM ET
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

1-9  |  Home

31
Key Game
She'Fon Boyd
KEY GAME

She'Fon Boyd

#95 | Defensive Tackle
@
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
Player
She'Fon Boyd None-None
Ashton Logan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAM HOUSTON
100%
📊
MTSU
0%
SAM HOUSTON --
MTSU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
Sam HoustonSHSU (-3.5) 0 MTSUMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sam Houston Cover

1.3%

MTSU Cover

98.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MTSU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

SHSU By 1-6 points

0.9%

SHSU By 7-13 points

0.3%

MTSU By 1-6 points

2.5%

MTSU By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
14
SAM HOUSTON
45
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
24
SAM HOUSTON
27
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI MTSU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim MTSU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI MTSU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Sim MTSU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 SHSU @ MTSU 17 - 31
Nov 25, 2023 MTSU @ SHSU 20 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +50.0% more
Middle Tennessee: 1.3 vs Sam Houston: 0.8
Total Yards (L5) +31.0% more
Middle Tennessee: 418.6 vs Sam Houston: 319.4
First Downs (L5) +20.0% more
Middle Tennessee: 19.7 vs Sam Houston: 16.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Middle Tennessee: 0.4 vs Sam Houston: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 14.0 17
MTSU Score 45.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 16.4 24.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 100.1 / 142.7 192.0 / 79.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 418.6 / 319.4 460.0 / 360.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
8%MONEY92%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
MTSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
MTSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
MTSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
SHSU
MTSU
SHSU
ML
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
ATS
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
MTSU’s Blue Raider Blitz Returns in July
williamsonsource 3 months, 1 week ago