Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico St @ UTEP NMSU @ UTEP

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

3-7  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 3:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl
View Odds Details →

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

2-8  |  Home

31
Key Game
David Barker
KEY GAME

David Barker

#92 | Place kicker
@
Carlos Arreola
KEY GAME

Carlos Arreola

#91 | Place kicker
Player
David Barker None-None
Carlos Arreola None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO ST
100%
📊
UTEP
0%
NEW MEXICO ST --
UTEP --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
UTEP
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (UTEP)
New Mexico StNMSU (-3.5) 0 UTEPUTEP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico St Cover

17.7%

UTEP Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTEP -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)

NMSU By 1-6 points

8.6%

NMSU By 7-13 points

5.3%

UTEP By 1-6 points

13.5%

UTEP By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
14
NEW MEXICO STATE
27
UTEP
Simulated Score
27
NEW MEXICO STATE
31
UTEP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UTEP Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UTEP Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UTEP (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim UTEP (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 NMSU @ UTEP 34 - 31
Nov 30, 2024 UTEP @ NMSU 42 - 35
Oct 18, 2023 NMSU @ UTEP 28 - 7
Sep 10, 2022 NMSU @ UTEP 13 - 20
Aug 28, 2021 UTEP @ NMSU 30 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +91.8% more
UTEP: 120.3 vs New Mexico State: 62.7
Turnovers (L5) +51.6% more
New Mexico State: 2.2 vs UTEP: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +20.6% more
New Mexico State: 21.8 vs UTEP: 17.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
New Mexico State: 0.4 vs UTEP: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 14.0 34
UTEP Score 27.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.3 / 21.8 20.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 120.3 / 62.7 248.0 / 194.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 301.4 / 307.7 399.0 / 470.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 2.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
UTEP
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTEP
NMSU
UTEP
NMSU
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
ATS
0% 0-5
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
67% 4-2
TTL
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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