KENTUCKY
KENTUCKYUK
5-5 | Road
17
VANDERBILT
VANDERBILTVAN
8-2 | Home
45
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jacob Kauwe
#91 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Jalen Gilbert
#9 | Safety| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jacob Kauwe | None-None |
| Jalen Gilbert | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENTUCKY
0%
VANDERBILT
100%
KENTUCKY
--
VANDERBILT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UK -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)
UK By 1-6 points
16.5%
UK By 7-13 points
19.3%
VAN By 1-6 points
12.9%
VAN By 7-13 points
9.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Kentucky
31
KENTUCKY
Vanderbilt
24
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
Kentucky
17
KENTUCKY
Vanderbilt
31
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Kentucky
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Vanderbilt
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Kentucky (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim
Vanderbilt (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 22, 2025
UK @ VAN
17 - 45
Oct 12, 2024
VAN @ UK
20 - 13
Sep 23, 2023
UK @ VAN
45 - 28
Nov 12, 2022
VAN @ UK
24 - 21
Nov 13, 2021
UK @ VAN
34 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+45.9% more
Kentucky: 1.7
vs
Vanderbilt: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5)
+13.3% more
Kentucky: 172.5
vs
Vanderbilt: 149.5
Total Yards (L5)
+11.4% more
Vanderbilt: 440.1
vs
Kentucky: 395.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UK Score
31.0
17
VAN Score
24.0
45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
24.0 / 22.6
29.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards
149.5 / 172.5
65.0 / 31.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.5
0.33 / 0.4
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards
440.1 / 395.2
604.0 / 315.0
Turnovers
0.9 / 1.7
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 7.8
ATS +/-: +5.0
VAN
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 7.8
ATS +/-: +5.0
VAN
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +8.5
VAN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: -3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
UK
VAN
UK
ML
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
20%
1-4
ATS
80%
4-1
20%
1-4
100%
5-0
0%
0-5
TTL
100%
5-0
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
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