Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / TCU @ Houston TCU @ HOU

TCU

TCUTCU

6-4  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 4:00 PM ET
TDECU Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

8-2  |  Home

14
Key Game
Nate McCashland
KEY GAME

Nate McCashland

#99 | Place kicker
@
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
Player
Nate McCashland None-None
Liam Dougherty None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TCU
100%
📊
HOUSTON
0%
TCU --
HOUSTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Houston)
TCUTCU (-3.5) 0 HoustonHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

TCU Cover

11.2%

Houston Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

TCU By 1-6 points

5.9%

TCU By 7-13 points

3.2%

HOU By 1-6 points

10.7%

HOU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
21
TCU
38
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
24
TCU
31
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Houston Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Houston Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Houston (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim Houston (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 TCU @ HOU 17 - 14
Oct 4, 2024 HOU @ TCU 30 - 19
Sep 16, 2023 TCU @ HOU 36 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.9% more
Houston: 166.5 vs TCU: 114.9
Turnovers (L5) +37.1% more
Houston: 2.4 vs TCU: 1.8
First Downs (L5) +15.8% more
Houston: 23.9 vs TCU: 20.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Houston: 0.5 vs TCU: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 21.0 17
HOU Score 38.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.9 / 20.7 17.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 166.5 / 114.9 230.0 / 133.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.24 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 404.3 / 369.9 391.0 / 426.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 1.8 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
HOU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
HOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -12.3
HOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TCU
HOU
TCU
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Dylan Raiola Highlights UCLA's Autzen Stadium Experience as Key …
si 1 hour, 15 minutes ago
Brent Venables Embraces Red River Rivalry Despite Struggles Agai…
si 1 day, 7 hours ago
Former Texas A&M Head Coach Dennis Franchione Dies at 75 After 1…
si 2 days, 7 hours ago
College Football Legend Dennis Franchione Passes Away at 75
aggieswire 2 days, 7 hours ago
Troy Aikman Stunned by Tyler Shough's Seven-Year College Journey…
themirror 2 days, 20 hours ago