Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oklahoma St @ UCF OKST @ UCF

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

1-9  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 4:00 PM ET
FBC Mortgage Stadium
View Odds Details →

UCF

UCFUCF

4-6  |  Home

17
Key Game
DeSean Brown
KEY GAME

DeSean Brown

#87 | Defensive End
@
Demari Henderson
KEY GAME

Demari Henderson

#8 | Defensive Back
Player
DeSean Brown None-None
Demari Henderson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OKLAHOMA ST
100%
📊
UCF
0%
OKLAHOMA ST --
UCF --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
28.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (UCF)
Oklahoma StOKST (-3.5) 0 UCFUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oklahoma St Cover

15.9%

UCF Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UCF -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

OKST By 1-6 points

7.9%

OKST By 7-13 points

4.7%

UCF By 1-6 points

12.9%

UCF By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
7
OKLAHOMA STATE
21
UCF
Simulated Score
31
OKLAHOMA STATE
27
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI UCF Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oklahoma St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UCF (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Oklahoma St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 28.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 OKST @ UCF 14 - 17
Nov 11, 2023 OKST @ UCF 3 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +23.0% more
Oklahoma State: 2.4 vs UCF: 1.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Oklahoma State: 0.4 vs UCF: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +12.5% more
Oklahoma State: 18.0 vs UCF: 15.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKST Score 7.0 14
UCF Score 21.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.8 / 18.0 16.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 125.1 / 121.6 125.0 / 104.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 310.3 / 312.9 396.0 / 228.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 2.4 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKST Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
UCF
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKST
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
UCF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
OKST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
UCF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
OKST
UCF
OKST
ML
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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