Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UL Monroe @ Texas St ULM @ TXST

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

3-7  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 5:00 PM ET
UFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

4-6  |  Home

31
Key Game
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
@
DonTerry Russell
KEY GAME

DonTerry Russell

#5 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Makenzie Ryan None-None
DonTerry Russell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UL MONROE
100%
📊
TEXAS ST
0%
UL MONROE --
TEXAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Texas State)
UL MonroeULM (-3.5) 0 Texas StTXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UL Monroe Cover

0.1%

Texas St Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TXST -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

ULM By 1-6 points

0.0%

ULM By 7-13 points

0.0%

TXST By 1-6 points

0.2%

TXST By 7-13 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
0
UL MONROE
45
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
20
UL MONROE
31
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Sim Texas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 ULM @ TXST 14 - 31
Nov 9, 2024 TXST @ ULM 38 - 17
Oct 14, 2023 ULM @ TXST 20 - 21
Nov 5, 2022 TXST @ ULM 30 - 31
Nov 6, 2021 ULM @ TXST 19 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +83.2% more
Texas State: 472.5 vs UL Monroe: 258.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +64.0% more
Texas State: 204.4 vs UL Monroe: 124.6
First Downs (L5) +60.6% more
Texas State: 22.3 vs UL Monroe: 13.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +20.0% more
Texas State: 0.4 vs UL Monroe: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 0.0 14
TXST Score 45.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.3 / 13.9 26.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 204.4 / 124.6 221.0 / 134.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.57 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 472.5 / 258.0 422.0 / 300.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.9 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
3-9-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
TXST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
TXST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
ULM
TXST
ULM
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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