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COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

2-8  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

6-4  |  Home

49
Key Game
Dylan Phelps
KEY GAME

Dylan Phelps

#4 | Safety
@
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
Player
Dylan Phelps None-None
Oscar Doyle None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLORADO ST
100%
📊
BOISE ST
0%
COLORADO ST --
BOISE ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Boise State)
Colorado StCSU (-3.5) 0 Boise StBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colorado St Cover

7.7%

Boise St Cover

92.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BOIS -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

CSU By 1-6 points

4.2%

CSU By 7-13 points

2.1%

BOIS By 1-6 points

8.6%

BOIS By 7-13 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
7
COLORADO STATE
27
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
17
COLORADO STATE
31
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boise St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Boise St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boise St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
C
Sim Boise St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 34.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 CSU @ BOIS 21 - 49
Oct 14, 2023 BOIS @ CSU 30 - 31
Oct 29, 2022 CSU @ BOIS 10 - 49
Oct 30, 2021 BOIS @ CSU 28 - 19
Nov 12, 2020 CSU @ BOIS 21 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +91.8% more
Boise State: 157.3 vs Colorado State: 82.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Boise State: 0.4 vs Colorado State: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +43.8% more
Colorado State: 2.2 vs Boise State: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSU Score 7.0 21
BOIS Score 27.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.1 / 17.4 32.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 157.3 / 82.0 279.0 / 39.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.54 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 317.2 / 305.4 533.0 / 332.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.2 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
BOIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
BOIS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +20.5
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
CSU
BOIS
CSU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
0% 0-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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