Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nebraska @ Penn State NEB @ PSU

NEBRASKA

NEBRASKANEB

7-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Beaver Stadium
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

4-6  |  Home

37
Key Game
Kyle Cunanan
KEY GAME

Kyle Cunanan

#91 | Place kicker
@
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
Player
Kyle Cunanan None-None
Ryan Barker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEBRASKA
0%
📊
PENN STATE
100%
NEBRASKA --
PENN STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
NEBRASKA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Nebraska)
NebraskaNEB (-3.5) 0 Penn StatePSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nebraska Cover

84.1%

Penn State Cover

15.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NEB -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEB)

NEB By 1-6 points

12.9%

NEB By 7-13 points

19.0%

PSU By 1-6 points

7.9%

PSU By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
24
NEBRASKA
10
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
17
NEBRASKA
28
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nebraska Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Penn State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nebraska (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Penn State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 34.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 NEB @ PSU 10 - 37
Nov 14, 2020 PSU @ NEB 23 - 30
Nov 18, 2017 NEB @ PSU 44 - 56
Nov 23, 2013 NEB @ PSU 23 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Nebraska: 0.5 vs Penn State: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +8.5% more
Nebraska: 19.5 vs Penn State: 17.8
Turnovers (L5) +20.0% more
Penn State: 1.0 vs Nebraska: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.9% more
Penn State: 163.4 vs Nebraska: 147.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEB Score 24.0 10
PSU Score 10.0 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 19.5 20.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 163.4 / 147.3 231.0 / 131.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 319.5 / 329.9 412.0 / 318.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEB Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +8.8
PSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +8.8
PSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NEB
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.9
PSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
NEB
PSU
NEB
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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