TENNESSEE
TENNESSEETENN
7-3 | Road
31
FLORIDA
FLORIDAFLA
3-7 | Home
11
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jackson Ross
#98 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Lagonza Hayward
#2 | Safety| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jackson Ross | None-None |
| Lagonza Hayward | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TENNESSEE
0%
FLORIDA
100%
TENNESSEE
--
FLORIDA
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Tennessee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TENN -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)
TENN By 1-6 points
13.5%
TENN By 7-13 points
19.3%
FLA By 1-6 points
8.6%
FLA By 7-13 points
5.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tennessee
34
TENNESSEE
Florida
21
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Tennessee
27
TENNESSEE
Florida
31
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tennessee
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Florida
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tennessee (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim
Florida (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 22, 2025
TENN @ FLA
31 - 11
Oct 12, 2024
FLA @ TENN
17 - 23
Sep 16, 2023
TENN @ FLA
16 - 29
Sep 24, 2022
FLA @ TENN
33 - 38
Sep 25, 2021
TENN @ FLA
14 - 38
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5)
+32.6% more
Tennessee: 24.7
vs
Florida: 16.6
Total Yards (L5)
+29.6% more
Tennessee: 451.5
vs
Florida: 317.8
Rushing Yards (L5)
+23.0% more
Tennessee: 150.2
vs
Florida: 115.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TENN Score
34.0
31
FLA Score
21.0
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
16.6 / 24.7
15.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards
115.7 / 150.2
145.0 / 248.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.22 / 0.69
Time of Possession
0.4 / 0.4
0.41 / 0.6
Total Yards
317.8 / 451.5
261.0 / 452.0
Turnovers
1.8 / 1.7
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 21.6
ATS +/-: +1.9
FLA
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 19.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 21.6
ATS +/-: +1.9
FLA
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 19.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -6.5
FLA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +14.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
TENN
FLA
TENN
ML
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
ATS
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
40%
2-3
100%
5-0
TTL
80%
4-1
20%
1-4
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
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