Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Western KY @ LSU WKU @ LSU

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

8-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 7:45 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA)
View Odds Details →

LSU

LSULSU

6-4  |  Home

13
Key Game
Jakeem Fletcher
KEY GAME

Jakeem Fletcher

#52 | Defensive Tackle
@
Grant Chadwick
KEY GAME

Grant Chadwick

#90 | Punter
Player
Jakeem Fletcher None-None
Grant Chadwick None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WESTERN KY
100%
📊
LSU
0%
WESTERN KY --
LSU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
LSU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (LSU)
Western KYWKU (-3.5) 0 LSULSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Western KY Cover

30.9%

LSU Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LSU)

WKU By 1-6 points

12.9%

WKU By 7-13 points

9.6%

LSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

LSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
WESTERN KENTUCKY
31
LSU
Simulated Score
17
WESTERN KENTUCKY
45
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI LSU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim LSU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI LSU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim LSU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 WKU @ LSU 10 - 13
Oct 24, 2015 WKU @ LSU 20 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.2% more
Western Kentucky: 1.4 vs LSU: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.1% more
Western Kentucky: 170.8 vs LSU: 107.4
Total Yards (L5) +29.8% more
Western Kentucky: 471.0 vs LSU: 330.4
First Downs (L5) +24.1% more
Western Kentucky: 23.9 vs LSU: 18.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 24.0 10
LSU Score 31.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 23.9 20.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 107.4 / 170.8 126.0 / 22.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.19 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 330.4 / 471.0 328.0 / 152.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.4 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
LSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.4 ATS +/-: +6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
LSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 28.4 ATS +/-: +6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
LSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
WKU
LSU
WKU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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