BYU
BYUBYU
9-1 | Road
26
CINCINNATI
CINCINNATICIN
7-3 | Home
14
Key Game
KEY GAME
Therrian Alexander III
#1 | Cornerback@
KEY GAME
Max Fletcher
#31 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Therrian Alexander III | None-None |
| Max Fletcher | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BYU
0%
CINCINNATI
100%
BYU
--
CINCINNATI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BYU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (BYU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BYU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)
BYU By 1-6 points
17.0%
BYU By 7-13 points
17.5%
CIN By 1-6 points
15.3%
CIN By 7-13 points
12.9%
AI Model Projected Score
BYU
27
BYU
Cincinnati
24
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
BYU
24
BYU
Cincinnati
27
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
BYU
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cincinnati
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
BYU (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim
Cincinnati (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 22, 2025
BYU @ CIN
26 - 14
Sep 29, 2023
CIN @ BYU
27 - 35
Nov 5, 2016
BYU @ CIN
20 - 3
Oct 16, 2015
CIN @ BYU
24 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Time of Possession (L5)
+13.0% more
BYU: 0.5
vs
Cincinnati: 0.4
First Downs (L5)
+12.8% more
BYU: 21.8
vs
Cincinnati: 19.0
Rushing Yards (L5)
+39.2% more
Cincinnati: 199.1
vs
BYU: 143.1
Turnovers (L5)
+9.9% more
Cincinnati: 1.4
vs
BYU: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BYU Score
27.0
26
CIN Score
24.0
14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.0 / 21.8
19.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards
199.1 / 143.1
87.0 / 265.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.31 / 0.5
Time of Possession
0.4 / 0.5
0.36 / 0.64
Total Yards
392.5 / 389.2
387.0 / 392.0
Turnovers
1.4 / 1.3
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BYU
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 23.0
ATS +/-: +2.8
CIN
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 10.6
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BYU
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 23.0
ATS +/-: +2.8
CIN
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 10.6
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BYU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.8
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
BYU
CIN
BYU
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
80%
4-1
75%
3-1
ATS
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
80%
4-1
50%
2-2
TTL
50%
2-2
0%
0-3
40%
2-3
25%
1-3
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