Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona St @ Colorado ASU @ COLO

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

7-3  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 8:00 PM ET
Folsom Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

COLORADOCOLO

3-7  |  Home

17
Key Game
Omarion Miller
KEY GAME

Omarion Miller

#4 | Wide Receiver
@
Damon Greaves
KEY GAME

Damon Greaves

#35 | Punter
Player
Omarion Miller None-None
Damon Greaves None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA ST
0%
📊
COLORADO
100%
ARIZONA ST --
COLORADO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Arizona State)
Arizona StASU (-3.5) 0 ColoradoCOLO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona St Cover

99.9%

Colorado Cover

0.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ASU -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

ASU By 1-6 points

0.4%

ASU By 7-13 points

1.5%

COLO By 1-6 points

0.1%

COLO By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
42
ARIZONA STATE
0
COLORADO
Simulated Score
24
ARIZONA STATE
31
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Arizona St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Colorado Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Arizona St (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Sim Colorado (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 ASU @ COLO 42 - 17
Oct 7, 2023 COLO @ ASU 27 - 24
Oct 29, 2022 ASU @ COLO 42 - 34
Sep 25, 2021 COLO @ ASU 13 - 35
Sep 21, 2019 COLO @ ASU 34 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.2% more
Arizona State: 165.0 vs Colorado: 92.1
Total Yards (L5) +20.4% more
Arizona State: 392.5 vs Colorado: 312.3
First Downs (L5) +14.9% more
Arizona State: 20.0 vs Colorado: 17.0
Turnovers (L5) +60.5% more
Colorado: 2.0 vs Arizona State: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 42.0 42
COLO Score 0.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.0 / 20.0 12.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 92.1 / 165.0 135.0 / 355.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.28 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 312.3 / 392.5 300.0 / 580.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.2 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
COLO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -8.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
COLO
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.8 ATS +/-: -8.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +13.8
COLO
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
ASU
COLO
ASU
ML
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
0% 0-4
TTL
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
0% 0-5
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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