Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Washington @ UCLA WASH @ UCLA

WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

7-3  |  Road

48
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 10:30 PM ET
Rose Bowl
View Odds Details →

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

3-7  |  Home

14
Key Game
Luke Dunne
KEY GAME

Luke Dunne

#45 | Punter
@
Mateen Bhaghani
KEY GAME

Mateen Bhaghani

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Luke Dunne None-None
Mateen Bhaghani None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WASHINGTON
0%
📊
UCLA
100%
WASHINGTON --
UCLA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Washington)
WashingtonWASH (-3.5) 0 UCLAUCLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Washington Cover

97.7%

UCLA Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WASH -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)

WASH By 1-6 points

3.8%

WASH By 7-13 points

8.8%

UCLA By 1-6 points

1.4%

UCLA By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
38
WASHINGTON
10
UCLA
Simulated Score
24
WASHINGTON
31
UCLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Washington Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UCLA Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Washington (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim UCLA (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 WASH @ UCLA 48 - 14
Nov 15, 2024 UCLA @ WASH 19 - 31
Sep 30, 2022 WASH @ UCLA 32 - 40
Oct 16, 2021 UCLA @ WASH 24 - 17
Oct 6, 2018 WASH @ UCLA 31 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +33.1% more
Washington: 1.2 vs UCLA: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +30.0% more
Washington: 21.6 vs UCLA: 15.1
Total Yards (L5) +26.5% more
Washington: 405.3 vs UCLA: 297.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.9% more
Washington: 153.8 vs UCLA: 127.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WASH Score 38.0 48
UCLA Score 10.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.1 / 21.6 10.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 127.8 / 153.8 57.0 / 212.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.15 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 297.8 / 405.3 207.0 / 426.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.2 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WASH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WASH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WASH
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.5
UCLA
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
WASH
UCLA
WASH
ML
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
80% 4-1
0% 0-3-1
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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