Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Utah State @ Fresno St USU @ FRES

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

5-5  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 10:30 PM ET
Valley Children's Stadium
View Odds Details →

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

7-3  |  Home

17
Key Game
Gabriel Iniguez Jr.
KEY GAME

Gabriel Iniguez Jr.

#10 | Defensive Tackle
@
Jordan Malau'ulu
KEY GAME

Jordan Malau'ulu

#10 | Wide Receiver
Player
Gabriel Iniguez Jr. None-None
Jordan Malau'ulu None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH STATE
0%
📊
FRESNO ST
100%
UTAH STATE --
FRESNO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Utah State)
Utah StateUSU (-3.5) 0 Fresno StFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utah State Cover

97.3%

Fresno St Cover

2.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USU -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

USU By 1-6 points

4.2%

USU By 7-13 points

9.6%

FRES By 1-6 points

1.6%

FRES By 7-13 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
41
UTAH STATE
14
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
24
UTAH STATE
31
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Utah State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Fresno St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Utah State (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
C
Sim Fresno St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 USU @ FRES 28 - 17
Oct 13, 2023 FRES @ USU 37 - 32
Nov 14, 2020 FRES @ USU 35 - 16
Nov 9, 2019 USU @ FRES 37 - 35
Oct 22, 2016 FRES @ USU 20 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +30.8% more
Utah State: 439.8 vs Fresno State: 304.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Utah State: 0.4 vs Fresno State: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +9.0% more
Utah State: 21.2 vs Fresno State: 19.2
Turnovers (L5) +50.0% more
Fresno State: 0.9 vs Utah State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 41.0 28
FRES Score 14.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 21.2 12.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 162.4 / 161.7 178.0 / 232.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.21 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 304.3 / 439.8 365.0 / 409.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.4 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
USU
FRES
USU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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