Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / San José St @ San Diego St SJSU @ SDSU

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

3-7  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 10:30 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

8-2  |  Home

25
Key Game
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
@
Tashi Dorje
KEY GAME

Tashi Dorje

#89 | Punter
Player
Trent Carrizosa None-None
Tashi Dorje None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN JOSÉ ST
100%
📊
SAN DIEGO ST
0%
SAN JOSÉ ST --
SAN DIEGO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
17.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (San Diego State)
San José StSJSU (-3.5) 0 San Diego StSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San José St Cover

21.6%

San Diego St Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SDSU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

SJSU By 1-6 points

10.0%

SJSU By 7-13 points

6.6%

SDSU By 1-6 points

14.7%

SDSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SAN JOSÉ STATE
14
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
20
SAN JOSÉ STATE
27
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI San Diego St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim San Diego St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI San Diego St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim San Diego St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 17.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 SJSU @ SDSU 3 - 25
Nov 18, 2023 SDSU @ SJSU 13 - 24
Nov 12, 2022 SJSU @ SDSU 27 - 43
Oct 15, 2021 SDSU @ SJSU 19 - 13
Nov 6, 2020 SJSU @ SDSU 28 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +67.3% more
San Diego State: 210.1 vs San José State: 125.6
Turnovers (L5) +46.9% more
San José State: 2.7 vs San Diego State: 1.5
First Downs (L5) +26.4% more
San José State: 20.2 vs San Diego State: 14.9
Total Yards (L5) +21.8% more
San José State: 416.3 vs San Diego State: 325.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 3.0 3
SDSU Score 14.0 25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.9 / 20.2 16.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 210.1 / 125.6 167.0 / 133.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 325.4 / 416.3 248.0 / 268.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 2.7 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
SDSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
SDSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.1
SDSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
SJSU
SDSU
SJSU
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Oregon State Offers MMR Boosters as San Diego State Battles Mump…
yahoo 2 days, 5 hours ago
Pat Fitzgerald's Michigan State Era Begins with Big Ten Test Aga…
yahoo 1 week, 5 days ago
Rose Bowl Debuts $30M Field Club as UCLA Eyes Football Renaissan…
headtopics 3 weeks, 6 days ago
Spartans Open 2026 Campaign Against Toledo: Live Coverage, Kicko…
freep 1 month ago
Spartans' New AD Dan Bartholomae Vows Championship Mindset: 'We …
statenews 1 month, 2 weeks ago