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FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

5-5  |  Road

11
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

5-5  |  Home

21
Key Game
Omar Graham Jr.
KEY GAME

Omar Graham Jr.

#9 | Linebacker
@
Chase Bond
KEY GAME

Chase Bond

#92 | Defensive End
Player
Omar Graham Jr. None-None
Chase Bond None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA ST
0%
📊
NC STATE
100%
FLORIDA ST --
NC STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Florida State)
Florida StFSU (-3.5) 0 NC StateNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida St Cover

82.3%

NC State Cover

17.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around FSU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

FSU By 1-6 points

13.5%

FSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

NCSU By 1-6 points

8.6%

NCSU By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
34
FLORIDA STATE
21
NC STATE
Simulated Score
24
FLORIDA STATE
31
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Florida St Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim NC State Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Florida St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
B
Sim NC State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 FSU @ NCSU 11 - 21
Oct 8, 2022 FSU @ NCSU 17 - 19
Nov 6, 2021 NCSU @ FSU 28 - 14
Nov 14, 2020 FSU @ NCSU 22 - 38
Sep 28, 2019 NCSU @ FSU 13 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.4% more
Florida State: 181.7 vs NC State: 124.7
First Downs (L5) +26.4% more
Florida State: 22.9 vs NC State: 16.9
Total Yards (L5) +15.0% more
Florida State: 422.7 vs NC State: 359.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Florida State: 0.5 vs NC State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 34.0 11
NCSU Score 21.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 22.9 20.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 124.7 / 181.7 134.0 / 180.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 359.1 / 422.7 286.0 / 383.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.0 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
NCSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
NCSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +0.7
NCSU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
FSU
NCSU
FSU
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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